Premier League forecast
This model is a probability distribution based on 50,000+ simulations of the season.
| Pos | Club | Pld | Pts | Est. Pts. | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 12 | 78.7 | 61.7% | 98.6% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 12 | 74.7 | 32.9% | 95.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 4 | 6 | 61.6 | 2.0% | 47.4% | 0.2% |
| 4 | Brighton | 4 | 7 | 60.8 | 1.6% | 43.9% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 4 | 3 | 57.0 | 0.5% | 24.3% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 4 | 4 | 56.1 | 0.4% | 20.6% | 1.1% |
| 7 | Chelsea | 4 | 7 | 55.8 | 0.3% | 18.7% | 1.4% |
| 8 | Leeds United | 4 | 8 | 55.0 | 0.3% | 15.6% | 1.5% |
| 9 | Brentford | 4 | 6 | 54.1 | 0.2% | 13.8% | 2.1% |
| 10 | Sunderland | 4 | 4 | 50.5 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 5 | 49.8 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% |
| 12 | Everton | 4 | 6 | 48.4 | 0.0% | 3.4% | 9.0% |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 4 | 5 | 47.8 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 10.9% |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 4 | 6 | 47.7 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 11.3% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 3 | 44.7 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 21.4% |
| 16 | Fulham | 4 | 1 | 43.4 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 25.6% |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 4 | 1 | 41.6 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 35.3% |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 2 | 41.1 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 38.6% |
| 19 | Hull City | 4 | 8 | 39.5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 48.5% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 4 | 0 | 33.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 79.7% |
Forecast evolution
TitleTop fourRelegation
TitleTop fourRelegation
How reliable is this?
Tracking the accuracy of the model agaisnt historical results shows that the model is well-aligned. Variance here illustrates the volatitly of real results against the model.